Saturday, January 16, 2016

If A Left Hook Doesn't Work, Try A Right


For those of us with memory banks going back to 1973, we remember that was when Arab nations cut off oil shipments to the United States as punishment for support to Israel.  The oil producing states had formed OPEC to regulate the flow and price of oil and used it for economic gain with a heavy dash of political pressure.  It was the Arab version of military invasion.  The result was signs like the one above and long lines at gas stations.  How did our leaders react?  In a wimper:
The Fed took the major action of reducing the speed limit to a 55 maximum.  We remember Gene McNary, the County Executive in St. Louis County paying overtime to custodians so they could take every other bulb out of ceiling fixtures, to save electricity.
St. Louis County Government Center
The Arab Embargo worked for a while but turned out not to be an ultimate weapon.  
Now the oil flow seems infinite.  The Big Lie told by just about every politician was the oil was limited and would run out, not to mention being at the mercy of foreign pumpers.  The US has turned into a net oil exporter.
The effect on the equity markets has been major.  Again, a type of Big Lie.  First the economists told us business couldn't prosper as oil approached $100 and the pump price neared $5;  now the same economists say the problem is $30 oil and $2 at the pump.
We believe:  the economy can adjust to oil supply and prices, so long as there is ample supply.  And business will prosper so long as profits and expansion continue.  That is why we are looking for a market recovery this year. 

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